Shopping for Ten Hag: The Bargain Bin - Part 1, Centre Forwards

During the summer The Athletic’s Carl Anka, Mark Carey, and Maram AlBaharna wrote a series of pieces titled “Shopping for Ten Hag” where they looked at positions that the new Manchester United manager may have wanted to strengthen before the 2022-23 season. They would then explore how Ten Hag had previously used players in that position, before recommending some who could serve a purpose for United in the future.

At the time of writing we’re now halfway through the Premier League season, United are in 4th place, level on points and with a game in hand over Newcastle who are placed above them in 3rd. They now have seven more points after 17 matches compared to the same point last season. They’ve also made it to the knockout round of the Europa League (albeit in a less than convincing fashion), and the Quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup with (for once) a favourable draw ahead of them in the form of League 1 side Charlton Athletic. While much of the summer and pre-season was filled about speculation about not just who Manchester United might sign but also how they might play, now we know the exact type of player Ten Hag is looking for in each position to improve upon his current line-up.

Now as we make our way into the January transfer window, United are in need of more reinforcements. There are serious questions though regarding Manchester United's financial flexibility during this transfer window, given the Glazer family is actively seeking to sell the club. The Athletic’s Laurie Whitwell reported throughout December that the Glazer family had made the decision to drop dividends coming out of the club and seek investment from outside parties as the debts they had built up throughout their ownership of the club since 2005 meant that the club could no longer fund itself and strengthen the Glazer family’s fortune. We can safely assume United’s coffers have run dry and they’re working on the last drips and drabs they can scramble together.

So, keeping this in mind, I have decided to write this series of pieces focusing on how Erik Ten Hag can improve the depth in this United team through a variety of means in the cheapest and most beneficial ways possible. The series will function much like The Athletic’s “Shopping for Ten Hag” series but with less of a focus on how the manager has previously used players in that position, less graphs (I don’t know how to make them, I tried and it hurt my brain), and less professionalism.

Part 1 of this series will focus on Centre-Forwards.

United desperately need a striker. That flaw was clear at the start of the season; it was thrust into even sharper focus when Cristiano Ronaldo could no longer curb his rampant narcissism; and highlighted further in the two games since the World Cup break. Although they look adept in their forward options, it only takes one injury to Anthony Martial for Erik Ten Hag’s side to be severely weakened. Right now, he is utterly reliant on Anthony Martial. “I like the type that Martial is because he can hold the ball, he’s a target, he can link up, he can also run behind, he has speed, he can finish and he’s a good presser,” said Ten Hag in November.

Indeed, Martial can perform all those duties, just rarely, and even more occasionally does he bring them together. In their game against Wolves recently he cut the frustrating figure United fans have become accustomed to, a striker a yard off the pace, and further from the level of intensity required to lead the line at the highest level. Martial on his day is a world beater, it just depends on when he decides that day has come, what mood he’s in, and if he’s fit – which has not been common in recent times.

Outside of Martial, Manchester United only possess Marcus Rashford as a fill-in centre forward that would be of the standard to slot in straight away. With Cristiano Ronaldo’s contract being terminated, the club has been left short of numbers in the centre forward position and are actively looking for reinforcement.

Ten Hag has even recognised the need himself. Speaking after the victory at Molineux he stated “I think we have a good team when all the players are available, but with many games coming up, I think there is a need. But you need one who can have an impact, otherwise you are just burning money and you don’t strengthen the squad and it doesn’t help you.”

So, we know what we’re looking for. A Centre Forward who is relatively cheap, as United don’t have major money to spend, but has a proven record and can contribute to the team almost immediately. United will likely also be looking for someone who can be signed once the team is sold and has the ability to be a major figure in the transfer market again. Fundamentally we’re looking for a Henrik Larsson over an Odion Ighalo this January. Someone who can hopefully impress enough in a short loan spell that we would like to bring him back in the summer.

Joao Félix - Atlético Madrid

Amongst the short-term, winter market options is Atlético Madrid’s Joao Félix. A player that has been talked about by Europe’s top dogs for a number of years and made a £115 million transfer from Benfica to Spain’s capital in 2019. It has been made very public that the Portugal international and manager Diego Simeone have fallen out, which has put the Premier League on high alert. Inside sources believe that a loan deal can be made until the end of the season that includes a loan fee of £15 million and his full wages being paid. Manchester United are no doubt interested in Félix, but a ending up costing north of £20m for just six months of play will not be one that any sensible club should go near.

Félix is amongst the top-tier of the elite young attacking talent in the world right now. Félix's greatest strength is his movement, which is often comparable with the finest number 10s, even if he has spent so much of his career in a front two. That that is the case means that many of those movements go untracked, increasing his potential during both lengthier build-ups and moments of transition. Those subtle moves away from central defenders contribute to him linking attacks, and his teammates offering further movements around him, making those defenders reluctant to follow him.

If an attack is instead being led by a teammate Félix is similarly willing to make runs in behind, and to operate as would a number nine by pursuing spaces in deeper territory, committing opponents to a foot race, or making a penetrative run. It is perhaps only his lack of an aerial presence that prevents him from being a more complete nine. His positional sense and awareness complements those qualities. He intelligently scans his surroundings to detect the most suitable spaces to move into, sometimes becoming almost static to either do so or maintain the position he has already assumed, and though he can quickly accelerate it is the intelligence of those movements and not their speed that most troubles his opponents, who he can avoid unnecessarily duelling with.

A further strength, and demonstration of his self-belief, is his desire to shoot early. He regularly scores within his first two touches, and often because of his impressive striking technique that involves him driving efforts at goal, and before goalkeepers have the chance to set themselves and react. That he is as capable of hitting across as he is underneath the ball also often forces those goalkeepers to predict the likely angle and height of his shots. During 2018/19, when he was so consistent for Benfica, he scored 14 of his 20 goals in all club competitions with his right foot; of the remaining six, three were scored with his left, and three his head.

While clearly in a slump playing under the restrictive Diego Simeone at Atlético, he has so much room to improve in a more attacking setup. Indeed, while a total of 25 goals and 13 assists in 95 La Liga appearances may seem modest, it is worth noting the majority of those appearances have come as a substitute. He actually averages a goal or assist for every 140 minutes played. Even this season, when his relationship with Simeone has been at its most strained, and his opportunities more limited than ever, Joao Felix has shown impressive efficiency. There have been four goals and three assists in just 578 minutes of La Liga action so far. Only three players have created more big chances per 90 minutes (0.78), while nobody has completed more through-balls per 90 minutes (0.78).

Simeone's Atlético average only around 50 per cent possession. Once they go in front, they tend to sit back and defend rather than try to extend their lead. As explained by Rui Vitoria, the manager who gave him his debut at Benfica at the age of 18, that approach is less than ideal for a player who thrives with the ball at his feet, and with licence to express himself in the attacking third. "I think he needs to play in a more dominant team, to play closer to the opponent's area.”. He would be far more likely to get all that at Manchester United, who average 53 per cent possession and seek to impose themselves on their opponents at all times.

Is he worth a look? Why is that even a question? United should be doing everything in their power to make sure this deal goes through. But only at the right price. The current quoted figure for only six months of a loan is outrageous.

Marcus Thuram - Borussia Mönchengladbach

Thuram has taken the Bundesliga by storm, forming a devastating partnership with Alassane Plea that saw M. Gladbach play in the Champions League for the first time since 2015. However, last season, his appearances came mainly from the bench.

The Frenchman contributes to a shorter and more patient build-up, which allows him to drop deep in the midfield to bypass the oncoming pressure from the opponents. He does not have the physique of a modern wide player, standing at 6 feet 3 inches, but he uses his height to his advantage when winning aerial duels and overcoming opponents’ pressure during the build-up phase. Because of his height, he has a significant advantage in ball control, allowing Embolo to make long-forward runs. He challenges aerial duels against fullbacks, which gives him a chance of winning it against them. Thuram won 52.2% of aerial duels, taking him to the 92nd percentile. He shows intelligence in finding space to receive the ball in the opposition’s final third behind their defensive line. He shows his flair for receiving possession and creating shooting opportunities with plenty of space. He shows great presence of mind in making penetrative runs, whether they are from the left wing or centrally.

Defenders often attempt to remain as close as possible to Thuram to deny him the chance to dribble if he succeeds in controlling the ball. He is big, but his close control is as brilliant as his dribbling, so he can find his way out of pressured situations with impressive ease. He takes numerous small touches when he dribbles, and uses the outside of his foot to do so, meaning he is constantly poised to flick the ball to a teammate with very little backlift or to simply continue to dribble – making him very difficult for defenders to read, and someone who draws a large number of fouls.

Marcus seems to have found his form this season, scoring ten goals in the 15 matches he played, though much of Thuram’s role in the team involved him complementing others until the moment arrived when he could make a key contribution. His infrequent involvement in build-up play is a good indication of his footballing intelligence. Opponents move with play, so his willingness to drift away from it or to simply stand still means defenders can lose track of him, and that he therefore often provides the element of surprise, so it perhaps makes sense that the majority of his goals are scored off of one touch and after he has ghosted into a position in the area on the blindside of his opponent.

He has also demonstrated the ability to lay on easy finishes for teammates – often by isolating a full-back, beating them for pace on the outside. and playing a square ball across goal for a straightforward finish. Such assists offer yet more evidence of his intelligence and selflessness – and his Gladbach teammates reap the benefits.

Thuram is starting to show that he belongs at a top club in a major European league. With the right coaching and guidance, he could easily keep improving at the impressive rate he has shown so far.

He’s the best suited candidate out there. Will cost £15m-£20m, is great at pretty much everything United need, will add another Marcus to the front-line to balance out the amount of Antony/Anthony’s on the team, and also has a signature celebration that fits very well with his fellow Marcus.

Terem Moffi - Lorient

For many this choice will be a head-scratcher. Look him up, look at the clubs he’s played for, you’ll tell me I’ve gone mad. Well I have, I did that a long time ago, but that’s not related to my love for this absolute baller.

Already a bit of a journeyman at age 23, Moffi has played in England, Lithuania, Belgium and now France already. He left Nigeria to join English footballing academy Buckswood and quickly moved to Lithuanian sides Kauno Žalgiris and FK Riteriai where he netted 21 goals in 39 matches. This earned Moffi a move to Belgium where played just 9 games with Kortrijk before moving to FC Lorient in 2020. Over his last 3 seasons in northwest France, Moffi has 33 goals and 7 assists in 86 matches. What has put Moffi in a position to potentially move to a higher level is his 10 goals in 14 Ligue 1 matches this season which has propelled FC Lorient up to fifth in the domestic table.

The striker likes to operate on the right side of attack, and so is suited to the right of a two-man partnership. Even when playing as a lone striker, it’s common to see Moffi favour the right side of attack to an extent, peeling away to the right when making runs in behind the opposition backline from where he can open his body up and curl shots towards the far corner of the net. In general, Moffi thrives when played through with space to attack with the ball behind the opposition’s backline.

He’s a very powerful runner with some similar traits to the likes of Romelu Lukaku – Not a target man, despite his size and strength — rather a runner who loves to attack space and whose off-the-ball movement is key to his potent attacking prowess. Playing on the shoulder of the opposition’s defender, Moffi is able to use his acceleration to speed away from their clutches. This has proven useful for Lorient on countless occasions where Moffi has always been available to latch onto the out ball from midfield or defence. Moffi’s technique when delivering the final pass or taking the penultimate shot is sound and often pleasing to the eye. He often seems as though he is almost passing the ball past the keeper in 1v1 situations using his left foot to open up the angle to take his shot.

Moffi is predominantly a left-footed striker and has cited Robin van Persie and another United target in Victor Osimhen as inspirations in the past. He told Ouest France;

“I grew up watching Jay-Jay Okocha, Obafemi Martins, Nwankwo Kanu, and then Victor Osimhen. I watched the last play a lot, and then we played together, and he’s a real model for me. I’m also a big fan of Robin Van Persie. He was the best for me.”

Moffi’s aerial ability unfortunately isn’t very good in general play; he’s not the target man that you want to be sending the ball long towards to escape pressure or with a view to holding up the play and helping the team to progress upfield. He doesn’t win many of his aerial duels and doesn’t boast a very impressive jump height, which works against him in aerial duels. He ranks well below average in aerial duels won with 0.97 per game, placing him in the 35th percentile among his peers. However, his off-the-ball movement in the box can help him to get into dangerous positions to threaten via a headed shot and if nothing else, Moffi will typically at least attract attention from some defenders towards him in this situation, potentially creating extra space for a teammate. An improvement in aerial ability can be trained though, as we’ve seen with Marcus Rashford this season. Give him to Benni McCarthy for a few weeks and let us see what he can do.

At 23, Moffi still has a ways to go as a forward and has only played 3 years of top-level professional football so this may seem to be a shot in the dark, but United need to be more proactive in their preparation for the future and now is not the time to step away from that. United need to start signing from the source rather than waiting a while to see if players work out, then ending up paying quintuple the price they could have paid a year previous. I’m not the only person that rates him highly. If he’s not snapped up now, expect him to move during the summer and blow up into a £50m rated player within a year.

This will be a tough window for United fans. The team have been fantastic and are in good enough form right now to be thinking about making a title charge. The issue is that one injury to the wrong player right now could absolutely demolish United’s chances of at least making a Champions League place this season. Hopefully the team are able to find a deal or two to strengthen depth beyond the starting XI, but United fans should at this stage be very wary given the lack of funds available to those involved in recruitment. Whatever happens, United must find at least one option to backup or usurp Anthony Martial at centre forward. That has to be their first port of call.